{"id":95783,"date":"2017-04-24T08:56:22","date_gmt":"2017-04-24T06:56:22","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/batijournal.com\/?p=95783"},"modified":"2019-07-15T12:03:53","modified_gmt":"2019-07-15T10:03:53","slug":"emmanuel-macron-vs-marine-pen-risque-daugmentation-taux-cas-dincertitudes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/batijournal.com\/index.php\/emmanuel-macron-vs-marine-pen-risque-daugmentation-taux-cas-dincertitudes\/95783\/","title":{"rendered":"Emmanuel MACRON vs Marine LE PEN : risque d’augmentation des taux en cas d\u2019incertitudes"},"content":{"rendered":"

Si les d\u00e9faillances d\u2019entreprises dans la construction continueront de baisser d\u2019ici la fin de l\u2019ann\u00e9e, la capacit\u00e9 d\u2019achat des m\u00e9nages commencerait \u00e0 se r\u00e9duire de 9 m2 dans le neuf en 2017. Coface anticipe une baisse des capacit\u00e9s d\u2019achat de 18 m2 entre 2016 et 2018. Elles seraient alors revenues au niveau de 2012 en seulement deux ans. La reprise actuelle pourrait n\u2019\u00eatre qu\u2019\u00e9ph\u00e9m\u00e8re en cas d\u2019incertitudes suite \u00e0 la pr\u00e9sidentielle et aux l\u00e9gislatives.<\/strong><\/p>\n

En 2017, la construction devrait conna\u00eetre une nouvelle baisse des d\u00e9faillances, de -7,7%. Le mod\u00e8le de pr\u00e9vision de Coface (se basant sur un d\u00e9calage d\u2019un trimestre entre le mouvement des d\u00e9faillances et celui de la confiance d\u2019un c\u00f4t\u00e9, et un d\u00e9calage de 4 mois entre les d\u00e9faillances et la dynamique des taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat de l\u2019autre) s\u2019appuie sur la confiance des entreprises du secteur, qui devrait continuer \u00e0 se restaurer, et sur une remont\u00e9e graduelle du taux moyen d\u2019emprunt jusqu\u2019\u00e0 2% en fin d\u2019ann\u00e9e. Un risque \u00e0 ne pas n\u00e9gliger : ce taux pourrait repartir brutalement \u00e0 la hausse en cas d\u2019incertitudes accrues.<\/p>\n

En 2018, la perte de capacit\u00e9 d\u2019achat de logement pourrait atteindre\u00a018 m\u00b2<\/strong><\/p>\n

Si la croissance du secteur semble av\u00e9r\u00e9e pour 2017, la remont\u00e9e des taux pourrait contraindre les perspectives d\u2019achat des m\u00e9nages en 2018. Dans son sc\u00e9nario principal, Coface table sur une perte de capacit\u00e9 d\u2019achat de 18m\u00b2 par rapport \u00e0 2016, soit une r\u00e9duction de la surface achetable \u00e0 61,1m\u00b2 qui correspondrait alors au niveau de 2012. Cela r\u00e9sulte de plusieurs ph\u00e9nom\u00e8nes combin\u00e9s pour 2018 : une stabilit\u00e9 de la dur\u00e9e des pr\u00eats \u00e0 17,5 ans, une hausse du revenu r\u00e9el moyen des m\u00e9nages de 1,5%, une hausse des prix dans le neuf de 3% et un taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat moyen de 3%.<\/p>\n

Selon le sc\u00e9nario alternatif, la surface achetable pourrait diminuer davantage \u00e0 53,8m\u00b2, soit le niveau de 2010, suite \u00e0 une pr\u00e9cipitation des acheteurs \u00e0 profiter des taux encore bas. Dans ce cas, la hausse des prix de 5,5% dans le neuf et un taux moyen de 3,6% affecteraient la croissance de la demande de biens de la part des particuliers, ce qui relancerait une dynamique haussi\u00e8re des d\u00e9faillances dans le secteur.<\/p>\n

Les principales propositions des deux finalistes des pr\u00e9sidentielles<\/strong><\/p>\n

Emmanuel MACRON :\u00a0<\/strong>
\n– Choc d\u2019offre pour faire baisser les prix, notamment dans les zones tendues, o\u00f9 le statut d\u2019Op\u00e9ration d\u2019Int\u00e9r\u00eat National permettra de transf\u00e9rer des communes \u00e0 l\u2019\u00c9tat la comp\u00e9tence en mati\u00e8re de politique d\u2019urbanisme, notamment l\u2019attribution des permis de construire
\n– Favoriser la mobilit\u00e9, notamment pour les jeunes, avec la cr\u00e9ation d\u2019un bail mobilit\u00e9 professionnelle et la cr\u00e9ation de 80 000 logements pour les jeunes et \u00e9tudiants
\n– \u00c9xon\u00e9ration du paiement de la taxe d\u2019habitation pour 80 % des foyers qui y sont soumis
\n– Stabilit\u00e9 des normes : pas de nouvelle norme dans la construction sur l\u2019ensemble du quinquennat.<\/p>\n

Marine LE PEN :\u00a0<\/strong>
\n– Renforcement des dispositifs de pr\u00eats aid\u00e9s
\n– Revalorisation des allocations pour le logement \u00e0 destination (APL) des jeunes
\n– Baisse de la taxe d\u2019habitation
\n– Politique active de vente des logements HLM \u00e0 leurs locataires avec la fixation d\u2019un objectif de vente de 1 % du parc HLM chaque ann\u00e9e (objectif d\u00e9j\u00e0 fix\u00e9 durant le quinquennat de Nicolas Sarkozy : en 2012, vente de 8 000 logements HLM et construction de 25 000 nouveaux logements HLM). Cet objectif est cependant limit\u00e9 par le p\u00e9rim\u00e8tre restreint du \u00ab parc vendable \u00bb et par les difficult\u00e9s d\u2019acc\u00e8s au cr\u00e9dit des foyers concern\u00e9s.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Si les d\u00e9faillances d\u2019entreprises dans la construction continueront de baisser d\u2019ici la fin de l\u2019ann\u00e9e, la capacit\u00e9 d\u2019achat des m\u00e9nages commencerait \u00e0 se r\u00e9duire de 9 m2 dans le neuf en 2017. Coface anticipe une baisse des capacit\u00e9s d\u2019achat de 18 m2 entre 2016 et 2018. Elles seraient alors revenues au niveau de 2012 en […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":17,"featured_media":95784,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[10736,10530,6345],"tags":[53,1364],"class_list":["post-95783","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-a-la-une","category-actualites","category-economie-marches","tag-construction","tag-immobilier"],"yoast_head":"\nEmmanuel MACRON vs Marine LE PEN : risque d'augmentation des taux en cas d\u2019incertitudes<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/batijournal.com\/index.php\/emmanuel-macron-vs-marine-pen-risque-daugmentation-taux-cas-dincertitudes\/95783\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Emmanuel MACRON vs Marine LE PEN : risque d'augmentation des taux en cas d\u2019incertitudes\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Si les d\u00e9faillances d\u2019entreprises dans la construction continueront de baisser d\u2019ici la fin de l\u2019ann\u00e9e, la capacit\u00e9 d\u2019achat des m\u00e9nages commencerait \u00e0 se r\u00e9duire de 9 m2 dans le neuf en 2017. Coface anticipe une baisse des capacit\u00e9s d\u2019achat de 18 m2 entre 2016 et 2018. 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